How many of your neighbors will lose their health insurance thanks to the GOP?

unhappy family of 4

Estimates of the Increase in Uninsured by Congressional District Under the Senate GOP Tax Bill

Excerpts. See complete article here.

 

 

Last week, the Senate dealt a blow to health care by repealing the individual coverage mandate as part of its tax bill. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that repeal of the mandate will result in millions more uninsured over the next decade, even if Congress approves a market stabilization package. A major portion of the newly uninsured would come from the individual market, where mandate repeal would raise premiums and drive some people out of coverage altogether.

The CBO projects that 4 million fewer people would have coverage in 2019 and 13 million fewer would be covered by 2025. As a result, the share of the nonelderly population that is uninsured would swell to 16 percent by 2025, compared with about 10 percentcurrently. By simply allocating the 13 million proportionally across states, the Center for American Progress estimates that, on average, about 29,800 more people would be uninsured in each congressional district by 2025 under the Senate Republican tax bill. CAP previously published state-level estimates of coverage reductions due to mandate repeal here.

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Mandate repeal has two effects on the individual market. First, some healthy enrollees would drop out of ACA-compliant plans and become uninsured or underinsured. Second, because the remaining enrollees in the risk pool would be sicker on average, insurance companies would need to raise rates about 10 percent to cover the increased average cost. The resulting higher premiums would discourage even more people from obtaining coverage through the individual market.

Repeal of the mandate would spur healthy people to avoid purchasing coverage until they need it. Without the mandate, the millions who would become uninsured instead of being covered by Medicaid, employer-sponsored plans, or nongroup insurance would no longer have financial protection against catastrophic medical costs and would be more likely to forgo needed care due to cost.

California estimates by district, excerpted from 50-state table

Net reduction in health insurance coverage in 2025 due to individual mandate repeal, by congressional district and coverage type
STATE REPRESENTATIVE TOTAL COVERAGE REDUCTION MEDICAID REDUCTION INDIVIDUAL MARKET REDUCTION EMPLOYER-SPONSORED REDUCTION
California Doug LaMalfa (CA-1) 16,200 13,100 1,800 1,300
California Jared Huffman (CA-2) 35,500 13,700 20,200 1,600
California John Garamendi (CA-3) 19,100 15,100 2,400 1,600
California Tom McClintock (CA-4) 32,900 14,100 16,600 2,200
California Mike Thompson (CA-5) 18,700 14,800 2,300 1,700
California Doris O. Matsui (CA-6) 34,000 16,200 2,200 15,600
California Ami Bera (CA-7) 18,900 15,100 1,400 2,300
California Paul Cook (CA-8) 17,400 14,900 1,000 1,500
California Jerry McNerney (CA-9) 19,800 16,000 1,700 2,200
California Jeff Denham (CA-10) 19,300 15,800 1,600 1,900
California Mark DeSaulnier (CA-11) 43,800 15,300 26,300 2,100
California Nancy Pelosi (CA-12) 33,000 15,600 3,000 14,400
California Barbara Lee (CA-13) 36,100 15,700 4,000 16,400
California Jackie Speier (CA-14) 40,400 15,400 2,400 22,600
California Eric Swalwell (CA-15) 46,300 16,200 2,000 28,100
California Jim Costa (CA-16) 17,200 15,700 1,400 100
California Ro Khanna (CA-17) 68,700 16,600 24,000 28,000
California Anna G. Eshoo (CA-18) 66,400 15,200 23,700 27,600
California Zoe Lofgren (CA-19) 40,500 16,200 2,300 21,900
California Jimmy Panetta (CA-20) 19,700 15,300 2,800 1,600
California David G. Valadao (CA-21) 16,300 15,200 1,000 100
California Devin Nunes (CA-22) 19,700 16,000 1,700 2,100
California Kevin McCarthy (CA-23) 18,500 15,000 1,500 1,900
California Salud O. Carbajal (CA-24) 32,700 14,700 3,200 14,700
California Stephen Knight (CA-25) 33,900 15,500 16,100 2,300
California Julia Brownley (CA-26) 37,400 14,900 20,600 1,900
California Judy Chu (CA-27) 50,500 14,400 34,500 1,600
California Adam B. Schiff (CA-28) 59,100 14,500 43,400 1,200
California Tony Cárdenas (CA-29) 19,300 15,800 2,400 1,100
California Brad Sherman (CA-30) 53,400 15,600 36,000 1,900
California Pete Aguilar (CA-31) 18,800 15,800 1,300 1,700
California Grace F. Napolitano (CA-32) 18,700 15,100 2,200 1,500
California Ted Lieu (CA-33) 84,000 14,300 50,000 19,700
California Jimmy Gomez (CA-34) 18,900 16,100 2,700 100
California Norma J. Torres (CA-35) 19,300 16,000 1,800 1,500
California Raul Ruiz (CA-36) 16,300 14,100 1,000 1,100
California Karen Bass (CA-37) 59,500 15,400 42,900 1,200
California Linda T. Sánchez (CA-38) 18,500 14,800 1,700 1,900
California Edward R. Royce (CA-39) 48,700 15,100 31,700 1,900
California Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA-40) 17,100 16,000 1,000 100
California Mark Takano (CA-41) 36,000 16,700 1,800 17,500
California Ken Calvert (CA-42) 39,000 16,800 19,700 2,400
California Maxine Waters (CA-43) 19,000 15,500 2,000 1,500
California Nanette Diaz Barragán (CA-44) 17,900 15,600 900 1,400
California Mimi Walters (CA-45) 79,800 16,100 38,100 25,600
California J. Luis Correa (CA-46) 18,800 16,000 1,600 1,300
California Alan S. Lowenthal (CA-47) 19,200 15,100 2,300 1,700
California Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48) 45,600 14,600 29,300 1,700
California Darrell E. Issa (CA-49) 37,700 14,600 21,000 2,100
California Duncan Hunter (CA-50) 39,800 15,500 22,600 1,700
California Juan Vargas (CA-51) 17,800 15,300 1,400 1,200
California Scott H. Peters (CA-52) 69,600 15,000 34,200 20,300