California confronts the complexities of creating a single-payer healthcare system
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California Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon may have expected to torpedo the idea of a statewide single-payer healthcare system for the long term last June, when he blocked a Senate bill on the issue from even receiving a hearing in his house.
He was wrong, of course. His shelving of the Senate bill created a political uproar (including the threat of a recall effort), forcing him to create a special committee to examine the possibility of achieving universal health coverage in the state. On Monday and Wednesday, the Select Committee on Health Care Delivery Systems and Universal Coverage held its final hearings.
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Backers of the Healthy California program envisioned by the bill feel as if they’re in a race with federal officials intent on dismantling healthcare reforms attained with the Affordable Care Act, and even those dating from the 1960s with enactment of Medicare and Medicaid.
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Healthy California would be the most far-reaching single-state project for universal health coverage in the nation. That’s to be expected, since the state’s nation-leading population (39 million) and gross domestic product ($2.6 trillion) provide the impetus to solve big social and economic issues on its own.
The program would take over responsibility for almost all medical spending in the state, including federal programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, employer-sponsored health plans, and Affordable Care Act plans. It would relieve employers, their workers and buyers in the individual market of premiums, deductibles and co-pays, paying the costs out of a state fund.
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Wood stressed that the goal of reform is to lower healthcare prices, or at least to slow the rate of growth. Yet that may mean focusing on the wrong challenge.
The mechanics of cost reduction aren’t much of a mystery. As several witnesses at the latest hearings observed, the key is reducing unit prices — lower prices per dose of drug, lower reimbursements for physicians and hospitals, all of which are higher in the U.S. than the average among industrialized countries. It will also help to remove insurance industry profit and overhead (an estimated 15% of healthcare spending), not to mention the expenses they impose on billing departments at medical offices and hospitals, from the system.
The real challenge, however, lies in the politics of transitioning to a new healthcare system. Advocates of reform often overlook an important aspect of how Americans view the existing system. Although it’s roundly cursed in the abstract, most people are reasonably satisfied with their coverage.
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That’s because most people seldom or never experience difficult or costly interactions with the healthcare system. Horror stories of treatments denied and astronomical bills charged are legion. But the truth is that annual healthcare spending is very heavily concentrated among a small number of people.
The top 5% of spenders account for half of all spending, the top 20% of spenders for about 80%. According to the National Institute for Health Care Management, the bottom 50% of spenders account for only about 3% of all spending.
University of Massachusetts economist Robert Pollin, the nurses’ program consultant, estimates that the program will be about 18% cheaper than existing health plans, thanks to administrative savings, lower fees for drugs, physicians, and hospitals, and a step up in preventive services and a step down in unnecessary treatments.
That would leave about $106 billion a year, as of 2017, needed to replace the employer and private spending that would be eliminated. Pollin suggests doing so through an increase of 2.3% in the sales tax and the addition of a 2.3% gross receipts tax on businesses (or a 3.3% payroll tax, shared by employers and workers), instead of the gross receipts tax. Each levy would include exemptions for small businesses and low-income families.
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But that’s not the only obstacle. A workaround would have to be found for California Constitution requirements that a portion of tax revenues be devoted to education. A California universal coverage plan would require “a high degree of collaboration between the federal government and the state,” Juliette Cubanski of the Kaiser Family Foundation told the committee Monday. Waivers from Medicare and Medicaid rules would have to be secured from the Department of Health and Human Services; redirecting Medicare funds to the state might require congressional approval.
A federal law that preempts state regulations of employee health benefits might limit how much California could do to force employer plans into a state system.
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The desire to pursue the goal of universal coverage, whether through a single-payer model or a hybrid, plainly remains strong in Sacramento, in the face of the vacuum created by the Republican Congress and Trump White House.
As Betsy Estudillo, a senior policy manager for the California Immigrant Policy Center put it at Wednesday’s hearing, “The nation needs California’s leadership, now more than ever.”
